S2025 Ep233: Fed Rate Cuts Are Coming — Here's the Data You Need to Watch

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled that more rate cuts could be possible if inflation keeps cooling — but here’s the crucial point:

👉 The Fed doesn’t cut rates based on commentary.
👉 They cut based on incoming data.

In this episode, we break down exactly what the Fed and bond markets are watching — and how that flows directly into mortgage rates.

We cover:

• CPI (Consumer Price Index)
• PPI (Producer Price Index)
• PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
• Unemployment Rate
• ADP Payrolls
• Nonfarm Payrolls
• Wage Growth

Then we connect those data points to the markets that matter:

📉 The 10-Year Treasury
📊 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)
🏠 Your Mortgage Rate

When inflation cools → bonds react.
When jobs weaken → yields move.
When yields move → mortgage rates follow.

If you’re a homeowner, buyer, investor, or realtor — this is how you stay ahead of rate moves.

No hype. No politics. Just data.

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Dan Frio | NMLS #246527
Equal Housing Lender | TRU Mortgage Team / PBT Bancorp | NMLS #257781

The views expressed are solely those of the host and do not represent PBT Bancorp or its affiliates.
Educational & entertainment purposes only — not financial, legal, or investment advice.

⏱️ CHAPTERS — Correct for 9:22 Video

00:00 Opening & Fed Signal on Rates
00:40 Fed Doesn’t Move on Opinion — Data Matters
01:50 CPI, PPI & What They Reveal
03:05 PCE — The Fed’s Preferred Measure
04:05 Jobs Data — Unemployment & Payrolls
05:25 Wage Growth & Inflation Pressure
06:10 10-Year Treasury & Bond Reaction
07:00 Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Link
08:20 What This Means for Your Mortgage Rate
09:05 Final Takeaways & Next Steps