#430 Chris Whalen: The GOP’s Extinction Event, Rate Hikes Ahead & Why He’s Buying More Gold

In this episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris breaks down a wild week: the midterms, the November 5 sell-off and a hot jobs report. He calls the Republican losses an “extinction event,” but argues it could be good for mainstream Republicans and moderate Democrats, and says Democrats now own the affordability issue. With 165,000 jobs added in October and the economy still running hot, he expects Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, now free of election-year politics, to hike in December. Whalen sees the sell-off as a possible entry point but says not to hurry. He warns of diesel shortages and a jump in food prices next year, with mortgage rates near 7.4%. Plus: why he expects consolidation in the mortgage industry and REITs exiting, why manufactured housing is a bright spot, and why he disagrees with Jim Bianco on bonds and doesn’t see the 10-year at 4%. He also explains why he’s adding to gold, which he thinks has found a floor. A viewer asks why gold has gone nowhere while the debt has climbed $3 trillion.

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Links:    

The Institutional Risk Analyst: https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/ 

Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen    

https://www.amazon.com/Inflated-Money-Debt-American-Dream/dp/139428571X

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Timestamps:

0:00 Preview: how high would Warsh have to hike?

0:25 Welcome to The Wrap, in studio

0:47 Remember the 5th of November: midterms and the sell-off

1:13 Why the GOP loss could be a good thing

3:06 “Extinction event” and the moderate Democrats’ win

4:04 Jobs day: 165,000 jobs in October

4:24 How high would Warsh have to hike?

4:42 Democrats now own affordability: diesel and food prices

6:41 Should you worry about the sell-off?

7:16 Worries in the mortgage industry

8:09 What it would take: 6.5% mortgages

9:31 Should we get used to 7% mortgages?

10:53 Manufactured housing as a solution

12:33 The GOP’s path to recovery

16:06 The next two years for investors: gridlock

17:45 Where to invest now: energy, bonds, financials

18:22 Bonds: why the 10-year won’t hit 4%

21:24 Does the new Congress change inflation?

22:37 Warsh is free to hike: look to December

24:15 Is there a 10-year yield he’d buy?

26:30 Gold: a short-term move or something more?

28:10 Bank picks: Flagstar and the Canadian banks

30:44 Viewer question: why has gold gone nowhere as debt climbed?

32:44 What to watch next week

The content of this podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, tax, or legal advice. Nothing discussed should be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Guests' views are their own. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.