12 March 2026
The Iran War Expert: I Simulated The Iran War for 20 Years. Here’s What Happens Next
The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
About
White House war advisor ROBERT PAPE reveals why Trump is trapped in a war with Iran, the risk of a nuclear breakout, the role of China in the conflict, and how the US is losing control of the Middle East.
Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.
He explains:
▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war
▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure
▪️The hidden reality of Iran's 400kg enriched uranium stockpile
▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient
▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran
(00:00) Intro
(02:01) What’s Really Happening In The World Right Now
(04:01) I’ve Worked With The White House For The Last 20 Years
(04:48) What Iran War Simulations Reveal About The Next Conflict
(08:56) What Really Happened When The U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites
(11:57) Does Removing A Leader Actually Collapse A Regime?
(16:05) Iran’s New Supreme Leader May Be Even More Hostile To The U.S.
(26:04) The Escalation Scenario Most People Aren’t Paying Attention To
(41:12) Ads
(43:11) What The Next U.S.–Iran War Could Actually Look Like
(47:31) What Happens If The U.S. Hadn’t Bombed Iran - Would War Be Worse?
(52:06) Does Trump Really Influence Netanyahu’s Decisions?
(54:02) Are Trump’s Global Decisions Driven By Legacy?
(1:04:30) Could The World Be Heading Toward Another Genocide?
(1:05:52) What Happens After “Stage 3”
(1:07:14) Ads
(1:12:11) China’s Quiet Strategy For Global Dominance
(1:13:15) Is America’s Superpower Era Ending?
(1:16:29) Why China May Benefit From A U.S. Conflict With Iran
(1:22:51) The Real Long-Term Prize The U.S. Is Fighting For
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Robert Pape is a renowned political scientist and director of the Chicago Project on Security and Threats. He has advised every White House since 9/11 on military strategy and is the author of Bombing to Win: Air Power and Coercion in War.
He explains:
▪️The 3 stages of the escalation trap locking the US into war
▪️Why precision smart bombs trick leaders into strategic failure
▪️The hidden reality of Iran's 400kg enriched uranium stockpile
▪️How killing the Supreme Leader made the Iranian regime more resilient
▪️The pattern that connects Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran
(00:00) Intro
(02:01) What’s Really Happening In The World Right Now
(04:01) I’ve Worked With The White House For The Last 20 Years
(04:48) What Iran War Simulations Reveal About The Next Conflict
(08:56) What Really Happened When The U.S. Bombed Iran’s Nuclear Sites
(11:57) Does Removing A Leader Actually Collapse A Regime?
(16:05) Iran’s New Supreme Leader May Be Even More Hostile To The U.S.
(26:04) The Escalation Scenario Most People Aren’t Paying Attention To
(41:12) Ads
(43:11) What The Next U.S.–Iran War Could Actually Look Like
(47:31) What Happens If The U.S. Hadn’t Bombed Iran - Would War Be Worse?
(52:06) Does Trump Really Influence Netanyahu’s Decisions?
(54:02) Are Trump’s Global Decisions Driven By Legacy?
(1:04:30) Could The World Be Heading Toward Another Genocide?
(1:05:52) What Happens After “Stage 3”
(1:07:14) Ads
(1:12:11) China’s Quiet Strategy For Global Dominance
(1:13:15) Is America’s Superpower Era Ending?
(1:16:29) Why China May Benefit From A U.S. Conflict With Iran
(1:22:51) The Real Long-Term Prize The U.S. Is Fighting For
Enjoyed the episode? Share this link and earn points for every referral - redeem them for exclusive prizes: https://doac-perks.com
Follow Robert:
X - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/CACnkUs
LinkedIn - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/EhIzCvZ
Substack - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/AtTbkWq
The Diary Of A CEO:
Join DOAC Circle - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/EVyBm53
The Diary Of A CEO book - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/67654nf
The 1% Diary - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/2mrbk7t
Conversation Cards - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/Ex8Yc9b
Get email updates - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/7Az7mkJ
Follow DOAC on Instagram - https://link.thediaryofaceo.com/6KoLc6C
Sponsors:
Stan - Visit https://coach.stan.store/?ref=stevenbartlett&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode1
Fiverr - https://fiverr.com/diary and get 10% off your first order when you use code DIARY
Wispr - Get 14 days of Wispr Flow for free at https://wisprflow.ai/steven