The Bayesian Conspiracy

In Episode 258 we talked about EA Veganism for a bit… and that bit was not long enough. So here we go again!Fill out Steven’s 3-question survey!LINKSOur episode 258 – How Effective Altruism Has EvolvedEA Vegan Advocacy is not truthseeking, and it’s everyone’s problem by ElizabethVegan Health Advice by OzyDairy cows make their misery expensive (but their calves can’t) by ElizabethBeing John Rawls...

The stupid red-button/blue-button discourse came back. Eneasz thought he could sit out this round until Aella went Chaos God with her social media app, Glosso.Fill out our new 2-question survey!LINKSPlzDontKillUsInkhaven Presents podcastThe Knot webficThe Mind ReviverGlossoStupid Tim Urban with his stupid button-resurrectionoh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff” articlePaid...

We discuss how far the right to be wrong goes, a recent intra-rat kerfuffle, and why random violence is bad. And it’s secretly all about AI Doom.Fill out our 2-question survey!LINKSOne Week in the Rat FarmKelsey’s religious liberalism tweetScott’s tweet in response to Robby from MIRIScott’s tweet in reply to Ronny from LightconeOnly Law Can Prevent Extinction by Eliezer YudkowskyAudio version of...

Matt returns to discuss a post urging us to chill out on AI if there isn’t imminent doom in 2028.There is no video or preshow chat today, due to user error in setting up an in-person video recording. Sorry. LINKSConsider chilling out in 2028The Scary BridgeKill Your Friend’s CatThe UnSlop AI Fiction competitionThe new Guild of the RosePaid Bonus content for the week – none, sorry!00:00:50 –...

We talk about three EA-adjacent articles, hitting veganism, directing your donations, and community.LINKSWhy you should eat meat – even if you hate factory farming by KatWoodsDonations, The Fifth Year, by JennPromises, by HarriBayesian Conspiracy 28 – Effective AltruismThe Case For Sardines“oh noes, Anthropic employees gonna give money to EA stuff” articleGwern on AI SlopJenn on AI Slop &...

We relive the last 48 hours of the future of humanity being wrestled over. The Pentagon wants to use Claude for comprehensive mass surveillance of Americans and autonomous kill-bots, and Anthropic says no. The Pentagon retaliates with extreme prejudice. With guest-star Matt.LINKSWashington Post summaryAnthropic’s responseTrump’s responseHegseth’s unhinged lunacyWe Will Not Be Divided – Goggle and...

We are inspired by Andrew Cutler’s Writing for AI to consider the value of writing for LLMsLINKSAndrew Cutler’s Writing for AIGwern’s Writing for LLMsTracing Woodgrain’s Reliable SourcesShambaugh’s An AI Agent Published a Hit Piece on MeEneasz’s Stone Age Billionaire Can’t Word GoodInkHavenLessOnlineThe main purpose of the AFFINE Seminar is to give promising newcomers to AI alignment an...

Eneasz talks a bit about his CFAR experience, and we discuss DaystarEld’s Epistemically Honest ReassuranceLINKSCFAR’s home pageUpcoming CFAR workshopsour episode 152 – Frame Control with AellaEpistemically Honest ReassurancePokémon, Origin of the Species (also in audio)Paid Bonus content for the week – Preshow chatter, Full Show Video00:00:56 – Announcements & Feedback00:13:15 – Eneasz at...

WSCFriedman gets to the core of what HPMOR is ACTUALLY about, and finally pinpoints why we love it so much, in his essay Harry Potter And The Methods Of Rationality Is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer.LINKSAudio version of HPMOR is A Disney Movie About A Serial Killer, from AskWhoWilliam’s blog, “As Our Days”ACX Non-Book Review 2025 Winners PostJust HPMOR substack, and Spotify playlistWhy the...

Discussing Ben Pace’s recent post on the Rationalist Vices.LINKSThe Seven Vicious Vices of Rationalists (includes AI audio version)Lightcone Fundraiser!2025 LessWrong Census/SurveySimone & Malcom Collins vs Reporter on whether genes existMIRI is hiringSlime Mold Time Mold’s long-delayed Lithium responseIf Anyone Builds It Everyone DiesDear Grom by EneaszPaid Bonus content for the week –...