Why the Ceasefire Won’t Fix Supply Chain Risk

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A ceasefire is in place, so why are supply chains still under pressure?
Because a half-open chokepoint can be harder to manage than a fully closed one.

In this second bonus episode of Resilient Supply Chain+, I break down what the war on Iran means for supply chain resilience, sustainability, risk, data, and visibility over the next 6-12 months. This isn’t about headline panic. It’s about what happens when disruption becomes friction, when shipping is still moving but at higher cost, with more uncertainty, more surcharges, and less room for error.

You’ll hear how I separate the risks into three buckets: sectors facing acute operational exposure, sectors facing cost and margin pressure, and sectors facing second-order inflation exposure. We break down why fertiliser and sulphur may matter as much as oil, why “manageable” freight markets are not the same as healthy ones, and why adaptation, rerouting, and reserve releases buy time but don’t remove dependency.

You might be surprised to learn why the war is also accelerating interest in electric vehicles, renewables, storage, and electrified operations. Not because they solve everything, but because every kilometre electrified is one less kilometre exposed to imported oil shocks.

Most importantly, I lay out the practical playbook: what supply chain leaders should review in the next 7 days, what contracts to revisit in the next 30, and why energy security and supply chain resilience are now the same conversation.

🎙️ Listen now to hear how this war is reshaping the future of resilient, sustainable supply chains.

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Alicia FaragKieran OgnevGary Lynch

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