Michael Oliver: ‘Nuclear Event’ Hitting US Markets & Silver ‘Most Explosive’ Upside

Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis MSA to the show. Michael Oliver opens the discussion by highlighting what he considers the most explosive signal in his decades-long career: the historic undervaluation of gold and silver miners relative to gold. He explained that for decades, the XAU index averaged around 25% of the gold price, but this ratio has collapsed and is currently trading near 9%.

Oliver pointed to a critical technical breakout occurring in the GDX-to-gold spread, which is moving above a 13-year resistance range. This breakout, he argued, is a powerful signal not just for miners to vastly outperform the metal, but also for an impending dramatic price advance in gold itself, as the spread only rises during precious metals bull runs.

The conversation shifted to the broader macroeconomic backdrop, where Oliver identified a “nuclear” government bond crisis as the primary catalyst. He warned that the US Treasury market is far larger than the stock market and is now slipping into quarter-century lows in price, reflecting extreme distrust among investors. Oliver stated that central banks will have no choice but to print money aggressively to defend their debt markets, which will further degrade the currency unit and propel gold higher. He believes this environment will force large asset managers to rotate out of an overvalued stock market, where key financial sector ETFs are showing imminent technical breakdowns, into a vastly underpriced commodity sector.

Regarding other commodities, Oliver maintained that silver is the single most explosive market, being historically repressed relative to gold and the broader money supply. He suggested that if silver merely caught up to the rise seen in other metals since the 1980s, a price of $500 would not be shocking. On oil, he argued it remains vastly underpriced relative to both its historical highs and the decay of the dollar, predicting a broad repricing of commodities as an asset class. Finally, Oliver cautioned that the US dollar index is on the verge of a sharp decline, breaking down from a year-long consolidation, which could accelerate gold’s rally and inflict further damage on US equities.

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:01:08 – Miners Relative Value to Gold

00:02:27 – GDX Spread Chart Analysis

00:05:44 – Breakout Implications for Miners

00:08:30 – Precious Metals and Bond Crisis

00:11:15 – US Government Bond Market Crisis

00:16:30 – Financial Sector Momentum Breakdown

00:19:03 – Capital Rotation and Liquidity

00:21:38 – Gold History Versus Stocks

00:25:15 – Silver Explosive Upside Potential

00:28:20 – Inflation & Debt Expansion

00:31:00 – Commodities Oil and Asset Shift

00:41:45 – Dollar Index Implications

00:43:35 – Platinum Group Elements Outlook

00:44:52 – MSA Details & Dollar Crisis

Guest Links:

Website: http://www.olivermsa.com/

X: https://twitter.com/Oliver_MSA

Amazon Book: https://tinyurl.com/y2roa7p5

Email: mailto:michaeloliver@olivermsa.com

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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.