Trump Escalates Trade War with Mexico: New 25% Tariff on Heavy Trucks Signals Shifting North American Economic Landscape
03 October 2025

Trump Escalates Trade War with Mexico: New 25% Tariff on Heavy Trucks Signals Shifting North American Economic Landscape

Mexico Tariff News and Tracker

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Today marks exactly one day after President Trump's latest tariff wave took effect, as heavy truck imports from all foreign nations now face a 25 percent tariff as of October first. This move continues Trump's aggressive trade policy that has fundamentally reshaped the relationship between the United States and Mexico throughout 2025.

The tariff landscape between these North American neighbors has been turbulent this year. Back in March, Trump imposed sweeping 25 percent tariffs on Mexican goods, though he partially lifted these after a phone conversation with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. While the exemption was initially set to end in early April, the administration has continued it indefinitely for goods compliant with the USMCA trade agreement.

Mexico has responded with its own protective measures. The country recently implemented tariffs ranging from 10 to 50 percent on Chinese imports, including auto parts, textiles, steel and consumer goods. This strategic move positions Mexico as a partner in building what some analysts call a tariff wall against China, while Mexican products continue entering the United States at zero percent under USMCA rules.

The automotive sector faces particular pressure. According to Capital Economics, approximately half of Mexico's exports to the United States don't qualify under USMCA origin requirements, leaving them vulnerable to the full 25 percent tariff rate. Meanwhile, Mexico has introduced a 50 percent tariff on vehicles from countries without trade agreements, creating positive expectations within its domestic automotive industry.

Looking ahead to 2026, the stakes couldn't be higher. The USMCA faces its first mandatory joint review, where the three countries must decide whether to extend the agreement for another 16 years, renegotiate terms, or transition to annual reviews. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated these negotiations will probably be bilateral rather than trilateral, despite efforts by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Sheinbaum to coordinate their approach.

Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard has stated his country will await official US tariff publications before deciding on responses to the latest truck and pharmaceutical levies. The administration continues reviewing areas where Mexico allegedly hasn't complied with USMCA provisions, particularly regarding intellectual property enforcement.

As freight volumes remain weak and rates stay depressed, the trucking industry warns these new costs come at the worst possible time. The true impact of this evolving tariff regime will unfold in the coming months as both countries navigate toward the crucial 2026 trade review.

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