FiveThirtyEight Politics

Election Day was a moment of truth for pollsters. After high-profile misses in 2016 and 2020, and with a public that has become less trusting of polling, 2024 had the potential to be a make-or-break year for the polls.
Two weeks later, pollsters are, on the whole, breathing sighs of relief. Polls were less error-prone this year than in 2016 and 2020. By one measure, state-level polling was the most accurate it’s been in at least 25 years.
But that’s not the whole story. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we evaluate how the polls did, covering the good, the bad and the statistically insignificant. Hold on to your priors.
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We are beginning to get a clearer view of what a second Trump administration might look like. President-elect Donald Trump is announcing his cabinet picks, the size of Republicans' majority in Congress is coming into focus, and this has all led to predictions about what will and won’t happen in a second Trump administration.
In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, we turn to predictions markets and polling to assess the expectations that consumers, Wall Street traders, online bettors and everyday Americans have for Trump's second term.
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Latino voters made a big jump to the right this election cycle. While the numbers aren’t final, AP Votecast reports an 8-point shift and Edison exit polls indicate more than a 14-point swing.
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, joins us on the podcast to unpack why Latino voters shifted right. He discusses the importance of issues like the economy and immigration, Trump’s appeal and how Latino voters have emerged as one of the nation’s most prominent swing groups.
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Since Election Day, there’s been no shortage of hot takes explaining what happened and what it all means. Have Democrats lost the working class? Does President-elect Donald Trump have an unprecedentedly powerful mandate? Were the polls wrong? On this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew dives into these questions and others, determining which ones are more fact than fiction. They also check in on the status of the House and Senate and discuss how many downballot Democrats managed to overperform compared to Vice President Kamala Harris.
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In this late-night, election-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the results showing Donald Trump winning a second presidential term.
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At long last, Election Day is upon us. In this final pre-results episode, the crew shares a guide for what to expect on election night — from the first poll closures in Indiana, to the last poll closures in Alaska. They set expectations for how long the vote may take to tally and which counties to keep an eye on.
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Polls were coming in hot and heavy over the weekend! In fact, 164 surveys were entered into the 538 database since Friday. In this Election Day eve episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with senior researcher Mary Radcliffe and New York Times polling editor Ruth Igielnik about what we are seeing in those final polls.
They discuss the famed Iowa Poll from Ann Selzer, which showed a rosy picture for Harris, and the battleground polling from the New York Times, which showed results that frustrate some of the trends we've come to expect this cycle. They also share some final thoughts on the election in the run up to the big day.
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It’s not just election season; it’s spooky season, too.
In this Halloween installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew opens up the mailbag and answers listeners’ questions. Does favorability matter? Can bad weather affect turnout? And what would you do with an election crystal ball?
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Looking back on the 2020 election, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day stands out as one of the most fraught and uncertain in recent American history. Will 2024 follow a similar path? In this episode of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen talks with Larry Norden, vice president of the Elections and Government Program at the Brennan Center, to provide a clearer picture of what we might expect after Election Day. They discuss when results could be expected, the types of misinformation that may circulate after the votes are cast, and why this election is seeing more litigation than any before it.
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Last week, John Kelly, former President Donald Trump’s longest-serving chief of staff, said Trump fit the definition of a “fascist.” Democrats have seized on the comment, using it to underline Trump’s anti-democratic tendencies in these final days before Election Day.
On this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses how much voters care about democracy. And they look at a new poll that might shed light on the behavior of a new group of swing voters: young men.
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