Simon Hunt: This Peace Plan isn’t Acceptable to Trump and isn’t Durable

Simon Hunt, a consultant on the global economy, China, and the copper industry, discussed the geopolitical implications of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, and its potential impact on the global economy. The ceasefire, Hunt argues, is unlikely to be durable due to the unacceptable terms proposed by Iran, which include control over the Strait of Hormuz and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region. Hunt suggests that the U.S.'s motivation for the conflict is to support its donors and to control energy prices, thereby controlling the world. However, Iran's resilience and backing from China and Russia make it a formidable opponent. The potential economic consequences of a durable ceasefire include rising inflation, increased ten-year yields, and market volatility. Hunt predicts that Europe is poised to enter a recession, while China and Russia may emerge stronger due to their strategic planning and resource reserves. The conflict also highlights the intensifying rivalry between the U.S. and China, with copper being a key battleground. Hunt suggests that the global economy is entering a period of uncertainty, with resource nationalism and geopolitical tensions likely to intensify. Hunt also discusses the potential for an inflation-led recovery or recession, the role of gold as a secure asset, and the importance of monitoring capital flows and political changes in the Gulf region. He notes that the conflict has exposed the U.S.'s lack of diplomatic skills and reliance on threats of brute force. The conversation concludes with Hunt's insights on the copper market, which he sees as a race between demand destruction and supply destruction, and the potential for an inflation take-off followed by a crash.