Lyn Alden: The War & Sovereign Debt-Crisis Loop that the US has Now Entered

In a podcast hosted by Tom Bodrovics, Lyn Alden, the founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy, discusses the economic implications of recent geopolitical events, particularly the Iran war, and its impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets. Alden emphasizes that fiscal dominance and sovereign debt crises often coincide with periods of war, complicating the investment landscape. She maintains that her base case scenario for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet growth remains a "gradual print," where the Fed will end quantitative tightening and transition to a gradually rising balance sheet in line with normal GDP or bank deposit growth. Alden highlights that the war in Iran, while expensive, is not a game-changer for the U.S. economy in the short term. However, it adds variance and uncertainty to the gradual print scenario, pulling forward the risk of a more significant print if the conflict escalates. She notes that the Fed's primary concerns are disruptions in the interbank lending market and the Treasury market, both of which have shown minor stress but remain stable. The discussion also touches on the impact of higher energy prices on the economy and the housing market. Alden believes that a prolonged energy price spike could affect housing affordability and market sentiment but does not expect a housing market collapse in the near term. She also discusses the role of liquidity in financial markets and how assets like Bitcoin and gold can serve as proxies for global liquidity. Alden concludes by advising investors to expect elevated shocks and headlines due to the current geopolitical and economic environment. She recommends diversification, owning high-quality scarce assets, and embedding assumptions of chaos into investment models. She also mentions the potential for a multi-polar world with neutral reserve assets, like gold and Bitcoin, playing a more significant role in the global financial system.