How I Think About Betting Trends (This One Surprised Me) | Presented by ProphetX

Teams playing on Thursday after a Sunday overtime game are 7-29 against the spread since 2000. I’m not a trends guy, so here’s exactly how I work through a stat like this, step by step: checking how it’s counted, finding the right comparison, looking past the win-loss record, testing the explanation, and asking whether the market’s already on it. This one held up better than most. Here’s why you still shouldn’t bet it blindly, and I want your theory on why it happens.



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SHOW INDEX

0:00 - The Trend

1:10 - Why Most Trends Are Noise

2:06 - Is There A Real Reason?

3:08 - Rebuild It Yourself

4:47 - Find The Right Comparison

7:09 - Look Past The Win/Loss Record

10:26 - Test The Explanation

12:54 - How Many Other Trends Are There?

14:40 - Is The Market Already On It?

17:09 - Sponsored by ProphetX

18:35 - What I Think About This One

19:26 - What To Do Next Time



Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.



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#NFL #ThursdayNightFootball #SportsBetting #BettingTrends #AgainstTheSpread
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