The Cut Tax: 13 Days at 100% or 63 Days at 95% Santa Clarita open houses market update

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Read the full breakdown: https://santaclaritaopenhouses.com/blog/the-cut-tax-santa-clarita-sellers-who-cut-lose-40500/
Watch: https://youtu.be/i9Exlf0GBQw

Somewhere in this valley this morning a seller is going to open a market report, see the median went up $10,000, and feel good about themselves. That seller is about to leave $40,500 on the table, and the number that proves it is two columns over on the same page.

Connor pulled every closing in the Santa Clarita Valley over the last 12 months. 1,322 sales with a full price history. 461 of those sellers cut their price at least once, about 1 in 3, with a median cut of $30,000.

The sellers who never cut sold in a median of 13 days at 100 percent of asking. The sellers who cut sold in 63 days at 95 percent of their original number. That is 50 extra days of keeping a house show-ready for strangers, and about $40,500 on an $810,000 ask.

He calls it the cut tax. It is not a market condition, it is a pricing decision, and it gets assessed in the first two weeks before a single buyer walks in.

Also in this episode: the phantom raise, where the median rose $10,000 while the price per square foot fell $17, because the houses that closed were simply bigger. The three separate markets hiding inside one 4.4-month supply number, with condos at 7.9 months while single family sits at 3.5. Why the VA buyer beat the cash buyer on both speed and price, 26 days at full asking against 33 days at 98.7 percent. Why Castaic is quietly the strongest seller's market in the valley and Stevenson Ranch is the weakest despite the highest prices. And 98 price drops in seven days that took $2,634,517 off the valley's asking prices.

Every figure came off the CRMLS feed at 6:02 AM Pacific on Monday, September 7, 2026, with rates from Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily and jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Connor T. MacIvor. 20 Yrs LAPD, Big City Motor Cop. Selling Santa Clarita real estate since 1998. Seller's Only Agent.

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