Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back?
In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry.
They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil.
Timecodes:
0:00 Introduction & Framing the Debate
1:27 Oren Cass: Economic Philosophy & American Compass
4:02 Manufacturing, Family, and Community
5:00 Free Trade, Comparative Advantage, and Policy
8:30 Tariffs: US vs. China and Historical Context
9:30 Do Tariffs Help US Manufacturing?
15:00 Data, Indicators, and Economic Predictions
22:00 Theory, History, and the Role of Economics
28:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition
38:00 Negotiation, Game Theory, and Policy Tools
46:00 Trade Deficits, Scale, and Global Competition
1:03:23 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats
Resources:
Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cass
American Compass: https://americancompass.org/
Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion
Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/
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